Sensitivity
analyses can be made either (i) using the standard
set of variables, which evaluates in turn the sensitivity to changes in exploration costs,
capital costs, operating costs, production rates and product prices, or (ii) by specifying
up to ten variables to be changed in a single sensitivity evaluation. By default,
sensitivity runs are made by changing the variables by -30%, -20%, -10%, +10%, +20% and
+30% and the results compared to the results with unchanged data. The default 10% step
size can be changed to another integer value using the Step Size box seen here.
When the run is complete, this output selection form is displayed. It is used to view, modify as an Excel spreadsheet and print the results; an example output page for real terms sensitivities calculations on the three variables specified above is shown below.
The results reported are Total After-Tax Cash Flow (undiscounted), NPV, NPV/bbl (or NPV/mcf) and NPV/I, all discounted at 10% or the rate defined by the data, DCF Rate-of-Return and Payback. For custom sensitivity runs, the variables changed are listed below the table of results as below; for the standard set of sensitivities, five tables similar to that shown are included on a single page.
The output selection form also includes five buttons which, when clicked, generate Graphs of Net Cash Flow, NPV, NPV/bbl, NPV/I or DCF ROR respectively. The button Toggle Y-axis changes the y-axis between the value of the parameter to be plotted and the % change in the parameter to be plotted; the panel below the button shows the current selection. For a custom sensitivity run, these plots will have only a single line but, for the standard set, "spider" plots are generated such as that shown here.
